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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-14 16:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 141442 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-14 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141442 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 300/12. A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus models. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C. This combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this, the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast is on the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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tropical
Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-14 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 25.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 25.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 24.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 25.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-14 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.0, -25.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-14 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 25.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 25.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move through the western islands of Cabo Verde this afternoon and move away from the islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight. After that time, some weakening could occur as the cyclone encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are expected over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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