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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-11 04:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better organized during the last several hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest infrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in the northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB satellite estimate. This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific since 1992. The depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear, warm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few days. There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not intensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and guidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual strengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and this forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few days, if the system develops an inner core. The long range intensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the cyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in that portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10. The depression is likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of days around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. A weakness in the ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering currents near the ridge axis. The weakness is forecast to fill in by all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge would steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed near the end of the forecast period. Overall, the models agree on the synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements. The NHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been an excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross track model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Graphics
2016-09-11 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Sep 2016 02:32:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Sep 2016 02:31:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-11 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 110231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 0300 UTC SUN SEP 11 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 16(22) 5(27) 6(33) 1(34) 1(35) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 30(52) 11(63) 2(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 8(26) 1(27) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 16(40) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (EP1/EP162016)
2016-09-11 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 10 the center of SIXTEEN-E was located near 13.9, -114.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-11 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 110231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 114.9W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 114.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue on Sunday, with some decrease in forward speed forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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