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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 10
2016-08-31 04:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310255 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 87.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow drift toward the north-northwest or north is expected tonight and early Wednesday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast to begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northwest Florida coast in the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday, and be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area by Thursday afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-08-31 04:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 310254 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.8W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.8W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.1N 87.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.3N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 85.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 83.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 37.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 39.0N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 87.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-31 04:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:42:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:39:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-31 04:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 310240 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that the center of the depression is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. The plane did not find any stronger winds than in previous missions, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Westerly vertical shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to decrease, and in fact it should increase substantially from 24 hours and beyond. Still, if the system can maintain deep convection while it remains over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so, the mere fact that it is expected to accelerate from this point forward could allow the maximum winds to increase. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, but it does allow for possible strengthening to tropical storm strength in about 12 hours. The cyclone should become extratropical by 72 hours, but after that there is some uncertainty whether it will be absorbed by another cyclone or become the dominant system. For now, the forecast continues to show it becoming absorbed, which is in line with the ECMWF. The aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is beginning to move away from the Outer Banks with an initial motion of 040/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast through the forecast period. The track models are in very good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 34.5N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 35.4N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 37.1N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 39.3N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 41.5N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 45.1N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-31 04:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 310240 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0300 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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