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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-30 23:17:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 20:48:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 21:09:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-30 23:03:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 302103 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The system has still not become better organized on satellite imagery, with limited evidence of banding features. There is an apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the low-level center. The highest flight-level wind reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used for the advisory intensity. There is some evidence of increasing upper-level outflow to the north. The latest intensity guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus. Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/4 kt. The global models continue to show a mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in 24-48 hours. The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the multi-model consensus. Therefore the official track forecast is also west of the previous one. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 24.4N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-30 23:01:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 the center of NINE was located near 24.4, -87.3 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-30 23:01:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 302101 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 1(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 20(31) 1(32) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) 1(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 1(35) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 16(32) 1(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15(32) 1(33) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 15(36) 1(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 11(32) 1(33) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 7(32) 1(33) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 4(39) X(39) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) 1(41) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 44(50) 1(51) X(51) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 42(48) X(48) 1(49) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 44(50) X(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 1(52) X(52) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 33(51) X(51) X(51) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 28(36) X(36) X(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 23(39) X(39) X(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 17(27) X(27) X(27) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 1(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 4(21) X(21) 1(22) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 10(33) X(33) X(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 26(31) 21(52) X(52) X(52) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 21(45) X(45) X(45) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 21(50) X(50) X(50) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 29(39) 12(51) X(51) X(51) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 33(53) 7(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 14(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 9
2016-08-30 23:01:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 302101 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 87.3W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from the Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 87.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will approach the coast in the watch area on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Wednesday. The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area by Thursday afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday morning, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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