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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-30 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATER TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 the center of NINE was located near 24.0, -87.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 8
2016-08-30 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 87.2W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in central and northern Florida, and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba, and move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 12 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday morning, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-08-30 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301446 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 87.2W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 87.2W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 87.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.4N 87.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.9N 86.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 36.5N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 87.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-30 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301442 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The center of the depression has been difficult to pinpoint even with radar and aircraft data concurrently this morning, probably due to the nearby thunderstorm activity. Overall, the depression remains disorganized, with no significant wind or pressure changes noted since the last advisory. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The environment seems conducive for some strengthening over the next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows gradual intensification, and is near, or slightly below the intensity consensus. Global models indicate the system will become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone. The initial motion is a very uncertain 335/4. The depression should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front. The new forecast track is moved a little to the west of the previous track during the first 24 hours based primarily on the initial position, on the western side of the guidance envelope. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and is blended back toward the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 34.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 34.8N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 35.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 37.2N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 39.4N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-30 16:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 301441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 33 10(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CHERRY PT NC 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 9 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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