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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-31 10:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 310854 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 The low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong westerly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to the west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding features. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase in the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in intensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous forecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone becomes extratropical in 48 hours. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and is already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 34.8N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 35.7N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 42.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-31 10:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 the center of EIGHT was located near 34.8, -74.3 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-31 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 the center of NINE was located near 24.5, -88.1 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 11
2016-08-31 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310852 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.1W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later today, and a turn toward the northeast is forecast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet. Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through today, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of central and northern Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are expected to receive storm total rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday morning. These rains may cause flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-31 10:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 310852 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 Although clusters of deep convection continue to pulsate near and to the southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone, there has been little overall change in organization overnight. A couple of ASCAT passes since the previous advisory revealed peak winds of 30 kt, so the system remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory. The upper-level outflow has expanded to the northwest and north of the cyclone, which suggests that the upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable for strengthening. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear should remain low during the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over warm water. This should allow for strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for steady intensification during the next day or so, which is also supported by the global models. The updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus. The depresssion has been meandering overnight, but is expected to begin a northward or northeastward motion later today. A deepening trough over the southeastern United States should cause the tropical cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward by tonight. Although the track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, the model envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that direction. The new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast. The Hurricane Watch remains in effect since there is still a possibility that the system could become a hurricane before landfall. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 24.5N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 25.4N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 26.9N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 30.3N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/0600Z 34.2N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 04/0600Z 37.0N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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