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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-31 16:43:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 311442 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 The system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is little organization to the overall cloud pattern. Using the Dvorak rules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate little change in strength. The intensity is held at 30 kt pending new observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours. The tropical cyclone should be in a moderate shear environment, and over very warm water, for the next 36 hours or so. Therefore, strengthening is forecast and the official forecast remains close to the intensity model consensus. Given the reasonably favorable environment, it is appropriate to maintain the hurricane watch for the northeast Gulf coast at this time. The intensity forecast after 48 hours is problematic since the system will be in a decidedly baroclinic environment and under strong upper-level southwesterly flow. This means that any intensification that occurs in 2-3 days will likely have a contribution from baroclinic processes. By 96 hours, the global models depict the system as embedded in a frontal zone, so extratropical transition is forecast to occur by that time. The center is very difficult to locate, but observations from a ship suggest that there has been little motion since earlier this morning, so the initial motion estimate is stationary. There has been little change to the track forecast guidance. A 500-mb trough over the southeastern United States should cause the cyclone to move north-northeastward to northeastward across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period there is uncertainty as to how far offshore the center will move, with some of the global models such as the GFS and the U.K. Met being close to the northeastern states, and the ECMWF somewhat farther east. The official track forecast lies between these two possibilities. It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of the path of the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 24.6N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 25.9N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 27.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 30.9N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 04/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z 40.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-08-31 16:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 311442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 2(17) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 1(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) 1(38) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 4(29) 1(30) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 5(35) 1(36) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 4(32) 1(33) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) 1(30) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) 1(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 1(28) 1(29) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 22(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 16(42) X(42) X(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 6(49) X(49) X(49) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 9(50) X(50) X(50) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 33(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 20(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 25(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 22(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 22(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 8(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) 54(64) 5(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 6(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 10(11) 20(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-31 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY BUT SHOULD RESUME HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 the center of NINE was located near 24.6, -88.0 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 12
2016-08-31 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311441 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY BUT SHOULD RESUME HEADING FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 88.0W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the United States Atlantic coast from Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Walton/Bay County line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Marineland Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from Georgia through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 88.0 West. The depression is currently nearly stationary. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today, and a turn toward the northeast with increasing forward speed is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northwest Florida coast in the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and it could be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Thursday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the hurricane watch area beginning Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 36 to 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 feet Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka...3 to 5 feet Chassahowitzka to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet. Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through today, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over portions of central and northern Florida through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are expected to receive storm total rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches possible through Saturday morning. These rains may cause flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight into Thursday morning mainly across central Florida. A few tornadoes are possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night over north Florida and southeast Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-08-31 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 311441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE UNITED STATES ATLANTIC COAST FROM MARINELAND FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARINELAND FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 88.0W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 88.0W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 87.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.9N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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