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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2016-08-31 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 310852 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 1(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 19(40) 1(41) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) 2(34) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) 1(40) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) 1(38) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 7(32) 1(33) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) 1(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 5(36) 1(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 3(31) X(31) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 2(31) 1(32) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 1(34) 1(35) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) X(36) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) X(39) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 28(44) X(44) X(44) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 21(52) X(52) 1(53) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 16(52) 1(53) X(53) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 21(51) 1(52) X(52) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 18(53) X(53) 1(54) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 35(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 8(33) X(33) X(33) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) 3(38) X(38) 1(39) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 14(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 32(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 36(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 35(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 22(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 5( 5) 48(53) 16(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 15(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 19(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 7( 7) 29(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 11

2016-08-31 10:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 310851 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.1W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.1W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.4N 87.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.9N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.4N 85.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.3N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.2N 76.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 70.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 39.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)

2016-08-31 07:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 the center of NINE was located near 24.3, -88.1 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 10A

2016-08-31 07:51:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 310551 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 100 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 88.1W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the United States east coast from northern Florida through the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression has been drifting westward during the past few hours, but a slow northward motion is expected later today. A faster north-northeast motion is forecast to begin this afternoon or evening. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone will approach the northwest Florida coast in the watch area on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and be near hurricane strength by the time landfall occurs on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the Hurricane Watch area by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area by Thursday afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation within the next 48 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. Persons located within these areas should be prepared to take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water. Promptly follow any instructions from local officials. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Aripeka...2 to 4 feet Aripeka to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 2 feet The Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. This prototype graphic is available at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?wsurge RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression NINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2016-08-31 06:09:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 31 Aug 2016 04:09:28 GMT

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