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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-08-30 22:59:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302059 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 87.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-30 22:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302049 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Satellite images indicate that the depression remains disorganized. The low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned, with convection continuing only sporadically near the center. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt. Despite the lack of strengthening, the environment appears conducive for some intensification eventually over the next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear. The intensity forecast is reduced a little in the short term to account for the current disorganized structure, then no change was made to the remainder of the intensity forecast. The system should become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates within a frontal zone. The cyclone has been drifting recently, but it should start a slow north-northeastward motion by tonight as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The mid-latitude flow then increases, which should cause the depression to accelerate northeastward. Model guidance is tightly clustered, and little change was made to the previous forecast. Model guidance indicates the system is nearing its closest point of approach to the Outer Banks. We have elected to continue the Tropical Storm Warning for this advisory, but this could be lowered tonight if a more consistent motion away from the coast becomes established. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 34.4N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 35.0N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 36.3N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 38.3N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-30 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 the center of EIGHT was located near 34.4, -75.1 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 10
2016-08-30 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 75.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 75.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight with a turn toward the northeast forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this evening and overnight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are expected within the warning area, beginning by evening. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-08-30 22:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302046 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 75.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 75.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 75.2W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.0N 74.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.3N 72.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 38.3N 69.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 75.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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