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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-08-31 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 312035 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 This depression has been a challenging cyclone. After the earlier apparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images indicate the system has actually become less organized. While there is a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks elongated, with a less well-defined center. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT data of 20 to 25 kt. I'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not going to occur with this depression. Other than persistence, this idea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and global model guidance. While I'm not ready to totally abandon any strengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from the previous one and is below the model consensus. The cyclone should become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a larger frontal zone in 3 days. An alternative, but realistic, scenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to marginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep convection. The cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. No significant change to the previous forecast was made. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 36.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 39.9N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 42.0N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 02/1800Z 44.0N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-08-31 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 312035 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-31 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WEAKER DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 the center of EIGHT was located near 36.3, -71.9 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 14
2016-08-31 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 312035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 ...WEAKER DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 71.9W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm tomorrow before losing tropical characteristics on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 14
2016-08-31 22:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 312035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 2100 UTC WED AUG 31 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 71.9W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 71.9W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 39.9N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 42.0N 57.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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