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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-30 01:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 23:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 21:09:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-30 01:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.5, -73.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 6A
2016-08-30 01:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 292345 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 800 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.5N 73.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected tonight, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday. The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expecting within the warning area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-29 23:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 292150 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving over very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4 kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution. In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2016-08-29 23:02:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:58:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Aug 2016 20:52:32 GMT
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