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Tropical Depression JAVIER Graphics
2016-08-09 17:07:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 14:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Aug 2016 15:04:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 091434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 The only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some small patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is embedded within an air mass that is forecast to become drier and more stable with time. Therefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over the central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period. The center has become less defined but is believed to be located just offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6. Over the next couple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system. The official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2016-08-09 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 091434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 09 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression JAVIER (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-09 16:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JAVIER EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 9 the center of JAVIER was located near 23.8, -111.2 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression JAVIER Public Advisory Number 10
2016-08-09 16:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 091433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 ...JAVIER EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 111.2W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM NW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Javier was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 111.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move near or over the southern Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Javier is likely to become a remnant low by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur and northwest Mexico through Thursday morning, with maximum amounts of up to 8 inches possible. Moisture partially related to Javier has spread into Arizona and New Mexico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, are possible through Thursday. The expected rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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