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Tropical Depression TEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-08-03 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030255 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 117.8W ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 117.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph. The system is expected to turn toward the west at a slightly slow rate of forward speed by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is predicted to become a tropical storm by Wednesday, and a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Graphics
2016-08-02 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 20:34:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 20:33:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-02 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest of mainland Mexico has become better organized. ASCAT data indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding features forming around the surface center. Thus tropical cyclone advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid- level humidity. The official forecast is a bit higher than the model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this season. ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion of 290/15. A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over the next few days. The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5, which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system approaches the central Pacific. Track guidance is in remarkable agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near, but slightly faster than, the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-08-02 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 022032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-02 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 022031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 115.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 115.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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