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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory Number 1A
2016-08-07 13:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071150 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 700 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SKIRTING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 104.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 104.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass near or over the southwest coast of Mexico today, and approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southwest coast of Mexico within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the watch area by late Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Graphics
2016-08-07 11:12:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2016 08:56:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Aug 2016 09:06:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-07 10:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070854 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 The low pressure area near the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better defined overnight, and there is sufficient convective organization to classify the system as a tropical depression. Although the convection near the center has recently decreased, there are several curved bands around the outer portion of the circulation. Recent land-based observations indicate that brisk southeasterly winds are occurring along the immediate coast of Mexico, and ship H9LA reported a minimum pressure of 1004.9 mb and 31 kt southerly winds early in the evening. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt. The forecast track of the depression takes it over very warm water during the next couple of days, but moderate easterly shear and interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico should mean only slight strengthening today. Additional modest intensification is expected tonight and Monday, before the system nears the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 48 hours. After that time, interaction with land and a more stable airmass should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or over the central Baja California peninsula in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance, which is a little above the dynamical models. Since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 290/9 kt. The depression is forecast to turn northwesterly by late Sunday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. In 3 to 4 days, a deepening mid-level trough off the west coast of the United States should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward or northward. The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.0N 104.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-08-07 10:55:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070854 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 35(48) 8(56) 1(57) X(57) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) 7(52) X(52) X(52) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 16(34) 2(36) X(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) X(17) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 9 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 13(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (EP1/EP112016)
2016-08-07 10:54:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 7 the center of ELEVEN-E was located near 18.0, -104.3 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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