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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-08-07 10:54:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070854 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 104.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southwest coast of Mexico from Manzanillo westward to Cabo Corrientes. The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today and this motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass near or over the southwest coast of Mexico today, and approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states Colima, Jalisco, Michoaca, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the southwest coast of Mexico within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the watch area by late Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-08-07 10:54:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070853 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE... INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.3W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.3W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression EARL Graphics
2016-08-06 13:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2016 11:32:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Aug 2016 09:04:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-06 13:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 the center of EARL was located near 19.0, -97.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EARL Public Advisory Number 16A
2016-08-06 13:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061131 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 ...EARL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 97.5W ABOUT 100 MI...145 KM W OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Earl was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 97.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Earl moves into the mountains of Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts 18 inches over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Tlaxcala and Veracruz through tonight. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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