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Tropical Depression TEN-E Graphics
2016-08-03 05:15:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 03:07:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 03:06:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-08-03 04:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030255 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-03 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030255 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the tropical depression is showing some limited banding features in combination with a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak classification numbers are gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt. A 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the system was slightly farther north than earlier indicated. Extrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps reflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the west-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north. The tightly packed track guidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate of forward speed during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to the more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out through the end of the period. This is supported by the global and HWRF model consensus. The system should only gradually intensify during the next day or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the system develops an inner core structure. A more steady strengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear relaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very moist and unstable atmosphere. Around day four or five, the cyclone may start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear increases again. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-08-03 04:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 030255 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 117.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 117.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN-E (EP5/EP102016)
2016-08-03 04:55:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of TEN-E was located near 13.9, -117.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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