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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT-E (EP3/EP082016)
2016-07-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of EIGHT-E was located near 11.6, -115.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-07-22 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 115.0W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 115.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-07-22 04:48:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220248 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.3N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.8N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 122.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 125.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 129.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Graphics
2016-07-21 23:20:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 20:51:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 21:08:23 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-21 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212037 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016 300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016 An ASCAT-B pass at 1742Z showed that the area of low pressure located well southwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center, and the geostationary imagery shows a curved convective band wrapping nearly halfway around the system. Given this, the low is now classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The depression will be moving over SSTs of 28C or higher for the next couple of days, but will also be in a moderate easterly to northeasterly shear environment during that time. Given these conditions, gradual intensification is forecast in the short term. The cyclone is forecast to peak in about 72 hours before it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, which should result in slow weakening. The NHC intensity prediction is close to the intensity consensus through the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism for the first 2-3 days of the forecast period will be a large subtropical ridge that will migrate westward from central North America over the eastern Pacific. This should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward for the first 48 hours or so. After that time, there is an increase in the spread of the guidance. The ECMWF and HWRF show the cyclone turning more poleward into a weakness in the ridge caused by an upper-level low, with the ECMWF showing some northward motion possibly due to the influence of Tropical Storm Fred to the the northeast. The GFS, GEFS mean, and COAMPS-TC show a more westward track with the cyclone staying south of the ridge. For now the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model consensus. Given the large spread in the guidance, the track forecast uncertainty is higher than usual late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 10.8N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.4N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 13.6N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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