je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 11:09:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 08:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 09:05:44 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-16 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160835 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small area of deep convection with little or no banding features. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the eastern edge of the convective region. Given that the Dvorak CI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is kept at 25 kt. It is surprising that the depression has not responded to the quite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In fact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have been already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since the opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast insists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 3 days. The depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving toward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will gradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and eventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a little bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone northward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-10-16 10:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 160835 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.1, -123.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 6
2015-10-16 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 160834 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 123.5W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 123.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Sites : [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] [1207] [1208] [1209] [1210] [1211] [1212] [1213] [1214] [1215] [1216] next »