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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.5, -126.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 162032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...DEPRESSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 126.2W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 126.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 162032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-10-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 162032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 126.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 126.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.4N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.5N 131.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 17:09:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 14:43:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 15:05:48 GMT
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