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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 5
2015-10-16 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 160231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 122.1W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 122.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-10-16 04:30:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 160230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 23:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 20:37:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 21:06:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 152036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 Visible satellite images suggest that the depression is not very well organized. The circulation is still somewhat elongated, and the low-level center is located near the eastern edge of a cluster of deep convection. The convection itself also appears to have lost some organization since earlier today. The maximum winds remain 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Even though environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening, the depression is not in any hurry to intensify. The hurricane intensity models and the global models all insist that the depression will strengthen soon. However, the one prominent difference in this afternoon's model suite is that the ECMWF model does not deepen the cyclone for another 48 hours or so. Since most of the guidance intensifies the system through 5 days, the NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the previous forecasts, making the cyclone a hurricane in about 2-3 days. This is also consistent with the latest intensity consensus. However, given the latest ECMWF run and the current structure of the depression, it's possible that intensification could be delayed. The initial motion is 265/11 kt. A mid-level ridge is steering the depression westward, and this motion is likely to continue for at least another 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken and give way to a broad trough west of the Baja California peninsula. This should allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward by day 5. Although the track models generally agree on this scenario, the system's weaker representation in the ECMWF during the first few days causes it to continue westward beyond 48 hours and make a more gradual turn compared to the other models. This now places the ECMWF closer to the UKMET model, which was the only outlier on the previous forecast cycle. Based on the new guidance, the NHC track forecast has been shifted westward and is a little bit slower than the previous forecast, especially at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 10.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 9.9N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 9.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 9.9N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.1, -120.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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