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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 152035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 ...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 120.9W ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-10-15 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 152035 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-10-15 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 152035 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 120.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.9N 125.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.8N 127.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.9N 128.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 16:51:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 14:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 14:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-10-15 16:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151448 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band extending to the north and northeast. The maximum winds remain 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB. Although the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification throughout the five-day forecast period. As such, the NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days. The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees, and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5. The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of the Baja California peninsula. This pattern change should cause the cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3 and northwestward by day 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of the track models are tightly clustered. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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