je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-10-16 16:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 161444 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around the outer circulation. An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that the center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which would place it a little south of previous position estimates and open the possibility that the center recently reformed. An expansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt. It is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying in a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist mid-troposphere, and very warm waters. Perhaps the structure of the circulation has been a limiting factor. Regardless, global models continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within a few days. The statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the cyclone's not intensifying yet. The official intensity forecast continues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due west or 265/14. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during the next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper- level trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to weaken. A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should cause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter with a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an even more poleward track by 96 hours. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster, and the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the right-side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-10-16 16:42:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 161442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.7, -125.2 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 7
2015-10-16 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 161442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015 ...DEPRESSION STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.7N 125.2W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 125.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general heading is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-10-16 16:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 161440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 125.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 125.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.7N 125.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] [1207] [1208] [1209] [1210] [1211] [1212] [1213] [1214] [1215] next »