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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-15 05:15:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 02:31:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2015 03:07:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-10-15 04:34:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 150234 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. The cloud pattern consists of a large curved band on its western side and a central dense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from earlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become better defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a tropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North Pacific season. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. The depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A general westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the ridge remains in place but weakens. After that time, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official track forecast lies near the consensus aids. Low wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should allow the system to strengthen during the next several days. The SHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the system to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued intensification thereafter. The official forecast is less aggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression to strengthen steadily for the next few days. This forecast is between the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower than the intensity model consensus. It is interesting to note that the GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening significantly toward the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 9.9N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 9.7N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 9.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 9.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 9.6N 126.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 9.9, -117.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 117.8W ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 117.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-10-15 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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