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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-10-16 10:35:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 160834 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 123.5W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 123.5W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 123.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2015-10-16 05:09:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 02:32:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 16 Oct 2015 03:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-10-16 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 160231 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has appeared ragged in satellite images most of the day, and the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 1.5/25 kt. The associated deep convection does not have much curvature and it is largely confined to areas to the north and west of the estimated center. Based on the degraded appearance, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 25 kt. It is not clear why the depression has not strengthened today as the large-scale environmental conditions have been quite conducive for intensification. The depression is expected to remain in a low wind shear and high moisture environment and over warm water for at least the next few days. Therefore, it is assumed that the system will have the opportunity to gain strength. The GFS, as well as the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance, are the most aggressive models and show the cyclone becoming a hurricane in a couple of days with continued strengthening thereafter. Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF models show much less strengthening. Given the poor initial structure of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast has been lowered in the short term but remains relatively unchanged from the previous prediction at the later forecast times. The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A continued westward motion but at a slower pace is forecast during the next couple of days while the ridge weakens in place. After that time, a turn to the northwest is expected as a weakness develops in the ridge east of the Hawaiian Islands. Although there is considerable spread in the guidance on when the northwestward turn should occur, the models agree on the overall theme. The new official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one for the first couple of days, but then is shifted westward to come into better agreement with the latest model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 10.2N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 9.9N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-10-16 04:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 160231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-16 04:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BUT STILL EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 10.2, -122.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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