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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 33
2015-09-26 16:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 261435 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 46.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 46.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 24.9N 47.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N 48.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 53.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.7N 57.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 60.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 46.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-26 11:09:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 08:54:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 09:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 32
2015-09-26 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260853 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 Despite continued westerly shear and abundant dry air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, Ida continues to produce a persistent cluster of deep convection to the east of its center. The intensity remains 30 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening. Ida's future during the next several days is highly uncertain. SHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over. The vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could actually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease producing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition for the cyclone to be declared a remnant low. A more likely scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low, keeping it as a depression for the next five days. However, Ida could also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a well-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a couple of days. But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain forecast. Ida is being steered northwestward, or 325/7 kt, by a low-level ridge to its northeast. However, the depression is approaching a break in the ridge, and a stronger ridge is expected to slide eastward from New England to the north Atlantic over the next few days. This pattern change should cause Ida to slow down during the next 24 hours and then move westward or west-southwestward at a faster speed during the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, except that it is a little faster beyond 48 hours to be close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 23.4N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 24.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 24.4N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 22.6N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 22.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 23.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-26 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA TENACIOUSLY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 26 the center of IDA was located near 23.4, -46.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IDA Public Advisory Number 32
2015-09-26 10:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015 ...IDA TENACIOUSLY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 46.1W ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ida was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 46.1 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest and then west with a decrease in forward speed is forecast through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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