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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2015-09-26 10:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 260850 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Advisory Number 32
2015-09-26 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260849 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 46.1W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 46.1W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 24.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 24.4N 47.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.6N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 53.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 46.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IDA Graphics
2015-09-26 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 02:51:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Sep 2015 02:50:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression IDA Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-09-26 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 260251 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015 The depression consists of a swirl of low clouds with pulsing convection in the eastern part of the circulation. Although Ida isn't very impressive on satellite imagery, the latest ASCAT data showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Since the convective structure has degraded since the ASCAT pass and the Dvorak estimates are low, the initial wind speed is conservatively set to 30 kt. Ida is still forecast, albeit with low confidence, to decay into a remnant low in 24 h while the cyclone remains in a high shear, low moisture environment during the next day or so. Global and regional model guidance, however, are starting to suggest that Ida will encounter a more favorable environment in 2-3 days with less shear and warmer waters, with only the GFS model now showing dissipation. In fact, most of the guidance brings the cyclone back to tropical storm strength by day 5. I'd like to see more consistent guidance before forecasting that solution, but as a compromise, the new prediction calls for Ida to regenerate as tropical depression, but with limited strengthening. While the new forecast is above the previous one, it is below almost all of the guidance except for the GFS. Ida is moving faster toward the north-northwest tonight at about 7 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow, westward on Sunday and then west-southwestward while Ida moves around a strengthening mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. Models have come into better agreement on this scenario, although the ECMWF remains a bit of a slow outlier. The official forecast is shifted southwestward, but lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 23.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 24.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 23.7N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 22.7N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 22.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-09-26 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 260250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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