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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-10-22 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220254 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TRUDY Graphics
2014-10-18 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:32:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 20:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression TRUDY Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-10-18 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182031 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014 Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available, a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the advisory time. As the center will remain inland over high terrain for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly and then dissipate. Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the initial position is quite uncertain. The low-level steering currents become very weak and track guidance shows little motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track forecast calls for little motion until dissipation. Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.2N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 17.3N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-18 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TRUDY DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 18 the center of TRUDY was located near 17.2, -98.5 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TRUDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-10-18 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 2100 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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