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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-10-01 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 012032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 104.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 104.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-30 17:10:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 14:52:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-30 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301451 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite classifications. A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30 kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken into a remnant low later today. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped in an environment of weak steering. The shallow cyclone should drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos
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Tropical Depression RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2014-09-30 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 301450 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS
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Summary for Tropical Depression RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-30 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 the center of RACHEL was located near 23.1, -117.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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