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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-10-02 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-01 22:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better defined today and has enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a small area of central convection west of the partially exposed low-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and west side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure of the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while the cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Later in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs west of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier airmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours and is near the SHIPS forecast after that time. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the center has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the short range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception of the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours. The GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward motion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a northwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the rest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these solutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to the right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5. Given the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period, including any potential threat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-01 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 17.3, -104.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-10-01 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 012032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 104.4W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-10-01 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 2100 UTC WED OCT 01 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 10(37) 1(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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