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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-17 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172052 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 The tropical disturbance south of Mexico has developed deep convection organized in rainbands today. Correspondingly, the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have come in at 1.5 and 2.0, respectively. Additionally, ship and ASCAT scatterometer observations suggest that a well-defined closed circulation has formed. Thus the system is being started as a tropical cyclone in this advisory. The two ASCAT passes this afternoon suggest peak winds of 30-35 kt, though these are along the edge of the swath and may not be reliable. Finally, a couple of ships at 18Z indicated winds of 30-35 kt. This relative bounty of observations indicates an intensity of 30 kt, though this may be somewhat conservative. The tropical depression appears to be in an environment conducive for further intensification in the short term, as water temperatures are near 30C, vertical shear is very weak, and the atmosphere is quite moist in the low levels and supportive of deep convection. Intensification is shown, quite similar to a blend of the SHIPS statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models. A 48 hr point is shown for continuity, but the system is unlikely to exist that long as a tropical cyclone over the high terrain of Mexico. An alternative scenario - supported by the ECMWF and GFDL models - is that the cyclone reaches the coast, but does not press inland, meandering just offshore as a tropical cyclone for a longer time than indicated here. The location and motion of the cyclone's center have substantial uncertainty, though it appears to be moving toward the north at about 7 kt. The tropical depression is being steered primarily due to the interaction of deep-layer southwesterlies equatorward of the cyclone with a weak ridge to its northeast. The system should slow its forward speed during the next couple days as the steering flow weakens. The NHC forecast track is based upon the TVCE multi-model ensemble. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.1N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 17.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 17.5N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-E (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-17 22:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 the center of TWENTY-E was located near 15.4, -99.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-10-17 22:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 99.0W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT A DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. INTENSIFICATION TO A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-10-17 22:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 172051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 99.0W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 99.0W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 99.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.1N 99.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.7N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.2N 99.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 99.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-10-17 22:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172051 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 2100 UTC FRI OCT 17 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 5 26(31) 3(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ACAPULCO 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 16 16(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) P MALDONADO 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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