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Tropical Depression RACHEL Public Advisory Number 25
2014-09-30 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 301450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 ...RACHEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 117.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS
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Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 25
2014-09-30 16:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 301449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 117.5W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/RAMOS
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2014-09-24 23:08:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2014 20:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Sep 2014 21:04:42 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-24 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242036 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 Deep convection formed closer to the center of the depression late this morning, but recent satellite imagery suggests that strong upper-level winds are beginning to cause a separation between the center and the convection once again. Dvorak intensity estimates were unchanged at 1800 UTC and a recent ASCAT pass indicated maximum winds of around 30 kt. Strong upper-level northeasterly winds are expected to prevent significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, however the depression could become a low-end tropical storm during this time. The shear is forecast to decrease late Thursday and Friday, which should allow for some modest strengthening before the cyclone moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions late in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is again close to the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, a little more westward than estimated earlier today. The model guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn west-northwestward and continue on that general heading during the next several days, to the south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn northwestward as a weakness in the ridge develops along 115W. The GFS continues to show a slightly stronger cyclone turning northward, while the ECMWF takes a weaker system westward. The NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the multi-model consensus. The updated track is a little west of the previous advisory, primarily due to the more southward and westward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.1N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.7N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-09-24 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC WED SEP 24 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 12(43) 2(45) 1(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) 1(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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