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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2014-10-02 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 02:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2014 02:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-02 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse and the cyclone will meander while it weakens. The NHC forecast is just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-10-02 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0300 UTC THU OCT 02 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 17(43) 7(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 4(25) 1(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-02 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 17.8, -105.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2014-10-02 04:31:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 ...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA ...WESTERN JALISCO AND NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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