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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Forecast Advisory Number 25
2014-06-15 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2014-06-09 23:07:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2014 20:31:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jun 2014 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-09 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092040 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE. Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON. Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or warnings along the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-09 22:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 9 the center of THREE-E was located near 15.4, -102.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2014-06-09 22:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 092032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 ...THIRD TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 102.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT AND IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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