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Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory Number 1A
2014-07-01 07:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010540 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression ONE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-07-01 05:15:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010314 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission. The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to the coast of the southeastern United States. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical by day 5. Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression ONE Graphics
2014-07-01 05:11:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 02:58:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 03:05:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-01 05:02:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 the center of ONE was located near 27.6, -79.1 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory Number 1
2014-07-01 05:02:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010301 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS FORMS EAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 79.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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