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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-06-29 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291443 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 22(22) 30(52) 5(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) ISLA CLARION 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 16.4, -110.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 4
2014-06-29 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291443 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 110.3W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H ...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-06-29 16:40:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291440 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.3W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.3W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 110.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 11:10:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 08:53:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 09:04:51 GMT
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