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Tropical Depression ELIDA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-07-02 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020251 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 0300 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression ONE Graphics
2014-07-01 13:55:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 11:55:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Jul 2014 09:05:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE (AT1/AL012014)
2014-07-01 13:53:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 the center of ONE was located near 27.5, -79.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory Number 2A
2014-07-01 13:53:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 800 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 79.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNW OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH...59 KM/H WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH...69 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression ONE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-07-01 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 010840 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0900 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) X(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) X(30) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) X(31) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) X(27) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 16(58) X(58) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) X(25) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 47(51) 7(58) X(58) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 39(46) 2(48) X(48) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 30(42) X(42) X(42) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) MAYPORT NS 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 13(15) 13(28) 3(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 3 10(13) 6(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 13 20(33) 5(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 13 19(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) PATRICK AFB 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 18 10(28) 3(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FT PIERCE FL 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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