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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-06-29 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity is held at 30 kt based on those estimates. The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the latest ECMWF solution. The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 10:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 15.3, -108.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-06-29 10:31:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 108.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 05:08:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 02:38:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 03:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-06-29 04:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 0300 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 16(35) 5(40) 3(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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