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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 5
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 292037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 111.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H ...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 292037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 2 37(39) 12(51) 2(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-06-29 22:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 2100 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.9W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.9W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 17:08:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 14:44:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 15:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-06-29 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291450 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 Satellite pictures show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone has gradually been increasing in organization this morning. A large band consisting of very cold-topped convection covers the western semicircle of the circulation, and deep convection has also begun to develop around the center in what appears to be the beginnings of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt for this advisory. However, recent trends suggest that the depression is very near tropical-storm strength. The center position has been difficult to determine, which, in turn, makes the depression's initial motion rather uncertain. A smoothing of the latest fixes suggests that the cyclone continues to move quickly toward the west-northwest, or 295/14, due to a strong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Global models show a weak mid- to upper-level trough extending southward offshore of the California coast during the next few days, which is forecast to cause this ridge to weaken. This change in the steering pattern should result in a substantial reduction in the cyclone's forward speed with the track bending toward the west once the circulation becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC forecast track is quite a bit faster and to the right of the previous one, primarily due to the re-location of the center based upon first-light visible images. The forecast track lies on the far left side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF solution. Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the inner core of the depression suggests that only gradual intensification is likely to occur. Beyond that time, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier and more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further strengthening. The large-scale conditions should not, however, be hostile enough to cause a rapid decay of the cyclone, so only slow weakening is indicated late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little lower on days 4-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.4N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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