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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Graphics
2014-06-15 17:08:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 14:33:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-06-15 16:33:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151433 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 Cristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not surprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool waters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely be declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields show the low dissipating around 72 hours. The initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5 kt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is a little to the right of the previous one, following the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2014-06-15 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression CRISTINA (EP3/EP032014)
2014-06-15 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 the center of CRISTINA was located near 20.1, -113.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression CRISTINA Public Advisory Number 25
2014-06-15 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014 ...CRISTINA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 113.3W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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