je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression ONE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-07-01 05:02:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 010301 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 32(46) 1(47) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 22(47) 1(48) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 11(46) X(46) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 5(46) X(46) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 32(44) 1(45) X(45) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 13(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 19(31) 8(39) 1(40) X(40) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 16(25) 7(32) X(32) X(32) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 10(12) 23(35) 8(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 3 12(15) 14(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 13 27(40) 14(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 13 26(39) 14(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) PATRICK AFB 50 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 26 20(46) 6(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 12 8(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression ONE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-07-01 04:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010253 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression FOUR-E Graphics
2014-06-29 23:08:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2014 21:03:46 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-06-29 22:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292040 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 Satellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized since this morning. Deep convection near the center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a long band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and sprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the strongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 1800 UTC. Given the lack of change in the system's organization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery, and thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as it was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast clip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days when a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the California coast. This should cause a notable reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track becoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC track forecast remains on the left side of the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than the previous one through 36 hours. The forecast track is adjusted to the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right as the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE. Low shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor intensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size and slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening will only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two days, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence of any significant shear. The thermodynamics should become increasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now forecast on day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042014)
2014-06-29 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 the center of FOUR-E was located near 16.5, -111.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Sites : [1446] [1447] [1448] [1449] [1450] [1451] [1452] [1453] [1454] [1455] [1456] [1457] [1458] [1459] [1460] [1461] [1462] [1463] [1464] [1465] next »