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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-02 04:08:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 02:36:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2013 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-11-02 03:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020239 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER IS ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 125W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS AND OVER WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. EASTERLY SHEAR OF 15-20 KT IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 28C...AND THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.9N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-02 03:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.9, -108.4 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 4
2013-11-02 03:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 108.4W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-11-02 03:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 6 8 11 29 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 33 34 32 42 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 59 54 53 28 NA NA HURRICANE X 2 4 5 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 4 4 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 17(17) 17(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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