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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Public Advisory Number 10
2013-10-16 16:39:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 ...PRISCILLA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 119.3W ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PRISCILLA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Graphics
2013-10-16 10:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:32:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 08:31:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-10-16 10:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160831 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12H...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 30 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING AT 290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24H OR SO DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PRISCILLA. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY 36H...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 48H AND BEYOND AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 12-18H WHILE PRISCILLA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...BY 24H AND BEYOND...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...WHILE ALSO MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36H AND DISSIPATE AFTER 72H...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression PRISCILLA (EP1/EP162013)
2013-10-16 10:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PRISCILLA CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 16 the center of PRISCILLA was located near 17.9, -118.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Graphics
2013-10-16 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 02:31:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2013 02:31:51 GMT
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