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Tropical Depression PRISCILLA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2013-10-15 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 2100 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-15 17:08:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 14:37:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 15:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 151436 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 8 30 NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 77 55 NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 16 15 NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.4, -110.8 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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