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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Public Advisory Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 151436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 ...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 110.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-10-15 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 151436 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 1500 UTC TUE OCT 15 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 110.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Graphics
2013-10-15 11:08:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 08:34:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Oct 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression OCTAVE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-10-15 10:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression OCTAVE (EP5/EP152013)
2013-10-15 10:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 the center of OCTAVE was located near 25.5, -112.0 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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