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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2013-09-09 07:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2013 05:43:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092013)
2013-09-09 07:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9 the center of NINE was located near 13.3, -22.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 2A
2013-09-09 07:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090536 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 200 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013 ...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 22.3W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS OF MAIO AND PRAIA THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2013-09-09 05:07:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2013 02:42:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Sep 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-09-09 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090241 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. RECENT ASCAT DATA WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE ASCAT DATA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD...CREATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALONG 30W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD THAN NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG OR EAST OF 30W...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER WARM WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.2N 21.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 13.4N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 13.7N 25.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.2N 27.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.2N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.0N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.7N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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