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Tropical Depression TEN Public Advisory Number 1
2013-09-12 23:05:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122105 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 93.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-09-12 23:00:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 122100 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 6 11 14 21 31 46 TROP DEPRESSION 58 40 34 27 25 25 27 TROPICAL STORM 39 52 51 50 48 38 24 HURRICANE 1 2 4 9 7 5 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 3 8 7 5 3 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 3(22) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 12(22) 6(28) 1(29) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 14(16) 10(26) 9(35) 6(41) 1(42) 1(43) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) 1(11) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-09-12 22:59:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122059 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 93.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Graphics
2013-09-12 11:09:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 08:49:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 09:05:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-09-12 10:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120847 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT...AND AN EARLIER OSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. ALTHOUGH GABRIELLE REMAINS SHEARED...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW GABRIELLE TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. ON ONE SIDE...THE DECREASED SHEAR...24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC TROUGH SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE CYCLONE DECAYING TO A TROUGH IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. ON THE PREMISE THAT THE PROS WILL OUTWEIGH THE CONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO REMAINS THAT GABRIELLE COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 33.5N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 34.4N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 36.9N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 41.2N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 46.7N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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