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Tropical Depression TEN Graphics
2013-09-13 07:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 05:48:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 03:08:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-13 07:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 the center of TEN was located near 19.8, -94.2 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN Public Advisory Number 2A
2013-09-13 07:43:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130543 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 100 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 94.2W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TEN Graphics
2013-09-13 05:17:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 02:52:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2013 03:08:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-09-13 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130251 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA... BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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