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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-13 04:50:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of TEN was located near 19.7, -94.0 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN Public Advisory Number 2
2013-09-13 04:50:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130250 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 94.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-09-13 04:50:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 130250 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 9 11 15 21 39 TROP DEPRESSION 32 25 30 24 23 10 30 TROPICAL STORM 67 67 56 56 50 55 28 HURRICANE 1 4 5 9 12 13 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 8 10 12 3 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 3(22) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 4(25) LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 2(27) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 7(26) 1(27) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 3 12(15) 7(22) 9(31) 5(36) 2(38) 1(39) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2013-09-13 04:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130250 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.0W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 94.0W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 94.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TEN Graphics
2013-09-13 01:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 23:37:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 21:09:01 GMT
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