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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-09-12 04:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120247 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED AGAIN THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE CYCLONE AS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR ONE SMALL THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS GABRIELLE INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AND SHOULD ALSO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT OVER NOVA SCOTIA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A 72-HOUR POINT WAS PROVIDED ONCE AGAIN FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GABRIELLE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY OR BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO. GABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 24 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 33.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 33.7N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 35.7N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 39.4N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 44.4N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 54.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-12 04:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 11 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 33.0, -67.0 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 15
2013-09-12 04:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013 ...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 67.0W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM WNW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT NEARS NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS BERMUDA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-09-12 04:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 120247 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 6 9 12 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 34 30 23 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 58 55 57 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 3 6 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 3 6 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) X(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-09-12 04:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 67.0W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 67.0W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.7N 67.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 35.7N 67.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.4N 66.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 44.4N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 54.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 67.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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