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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-13 01:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of TEN was located near 19.7, -93.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TEN Public Advisory Number 1A
2013-09-13 01:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122335 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 93.7W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TEN Graphics
2013-09-12 23:18:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 21:01:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2013 21:09:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-12 23:08:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122108 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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Summary for Tropical Depression TEN (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-12 23:05:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of TEN was located near 19.7, -93.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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